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2025–26 Champions League: Supercomputer Predicts League Phase Table
Sep
As the football world eagerly awaits the return of the UEFA Champions League, the highly anticipated league phase promises another season of thrilling encounters and unexpected twists. Following the resounding success of last term’s expanded format, which delivered 144 captivating matches, fans are geared up for more high-stakes drama. Paris Saint-Germain, the reigning champions, are set to defend their crown against formidable challengers like Liverpool, Arsenal, Barcelona, and Real Madrid.
With the league phase kicking off on September 16, the renowned Opta supercomputer has meticulously analyzed the data, crunching the numbers to predict the most likely final standings for each of the 36 participating clubs. Here’s a deep dive into what the supercomputer forecasts for the upcoming competition.
Understanding the New Champions League Knockout Qualification
The revamped Champions League format, introduced last season, presents a slightly more intricate pathway to the knockout stages. All 36 teams are pooled into a single league table, with each side playing eight matches against eight different opponents from across the continent. The top eight teams at the end of this league phase will automatically secure a coveted spot in the last 16.
Teams finishing from ninth to 24th, however, will face a challenging two-legged play-off round. Those ranked ninth to 16th will be drawn against clubs placed 17th to 24th, with the aggregate winners advancing to the last 16. Crucially, teams finishing from 25th to 36th will be eliminated from the competition entirely, with no consolation drop into the Europa League. This heightened stakes format ensures every match carries significant weight.
Supercomputer’s Final League Phase Table Predictions
The Elite Eight: Who Will Dominate?
Last season, Liverpool showcased their European prowess by topping the league phase table. The Opta supercomputer predicts a repeat performance from Arne Slot’s Premier League champions, who won seven of their eight matches last term and have started the new domestic campaign with a winning stride. Despite their impressive league phase performance in 2024–25, their first-place finish ironically led to a tough last-16 draw against eventual champions Paris Saint-Germain. This highlights the unpredictable nature of the new format.
Interestingly, despite being the defending champions, PSG are tipped to finish fifth. This lower projection is likely attributed to their incredibly challenging Champions League schedule. Ahead of them, an all-Premier League top four is predicted, with Arsenal, Manchester City, and Chelsea expected to finish second, third, and fourth respectively. The Gunners reached the semi-finals last term after a third-place league phase finish, while Manchester City surprisingly exited in the play-off round, and Chelsea competed in the Conference League. City’s shaky start to the Premier League season, with two losses in three matches, suggests they might face another tricky European campaign.
Barcelona, last season’s runners-up to Liverpool in the league phase, went on to reach the semi-finals before being knocked out by Inter Milan. Hansi Flick’s side is projected to finish sixth this term, just one place above record European champions Real Madrid. The Spanish giants, always among the favorites for the trophy, are expected to comfortably ease into the last 16, while Inter Milan is predicted to round out the top eight.
Here’s the Opta supercomputer’s predicted top eight:
| Position | Club | Predicted Points |
|---|---|---|
| 1. | Liverpool | 17.26 |
| 2. | Arsenal | 16.80 |
| 3. | Manchester City | 15.27 |
| 4. | Chelsea | 14.93 |
| 5. | Paris Saint-Germain | 14.79 |
| 6. | Barcelona | 14.54 |
| 7. | Real Madrid | 14.38 |
| 8. | Inter | 13.34 |
The Play-Off Contenders: Ninth to 24th
Bayern Munich, a perennial European powerhouse, will be keen to avoid the play-off round this season after being forced into it last term. However, Opta predicts they will narrowly miss an automatic last-16 berth, slotting into ninth place. English newcomers Newcastle United and Tottenham Hotspur are projected to finish 10th and 11th respectively, marking their returns to Europe’s premier club competition.
Surprisingly, Serie A champions Napoli are predicted to finish only 13th, one place behind Benfica. Their compatriots Juventus are handed a 15th-place finish, just below 2023–24 finalists Borussia Dortmund. Atlético Madrid, often a strong contender, are forecast to struggle, with a concerning 20th-place finish predicted. This would see them facing a tough play-off if the supercomputer’s predictions hold true, with Atalanta, Club Brugge, Villarreal, and Sporting CP all expected to finish higher.
Belgian debutants Union Saint-Gilloise will be hoping Opta’s forecast of a 24th-place finish comes to fruition, securing them a spot in the play-off round. Monaco, Bayer Leverkusen, and Athletic Club are also predicted to sneak into the knockout rounds, setting the stage for some intriguing play-off matchups.
The predicted standings for positions nine to 24 are:
| Position | Club | Predicted Points |
|---|---|---|
| 9. | Bayern Munich | 12.75 |
| 10. | Newcastle United | 12.48 |
| 11. | Tottenham Hotspur | 12.37 |
| 12. | Benfica | 12.15 |
| 13. | Napoli | 11.89 |
| 14. | Borussia Dortmund | 11.53 |
| 15. | Juventus | 11.35 |
| 16. | Sporting CP | 11.34 |
| 17. | Villarreal | 11.14 |
| 18. | Club Brugge | 10.93 |
| 19. | Atalanta | 10.86 |
| 20. | Atlético Madrid | 10.69 |
| 21. | Monaco | 10.16 |
| 22. | Bayer Leverkusen | 10.05 |
| 23. | Athletic Club | 9.93 |
| 24. | Union Saint-Gilloise | 9.80 |
The Bottom Dwellers: 25th to 36th
For the Champions League’s other debutants – Kairat, Pafos, and Bodø/Glimt – the supercomputer predicts challenging campaigns that will see them miss out on the knockout stage. While their participation brings significant financial benefits, their dreams of upsetting the odds and progressing further are likely to be dashed.
Teams like Copenhagen, Slavia Prague, and Qarabağ, who have made regular appearances in the Champions League but seldom make a significant impact, are also expected to be sent packing at the end of the league phase. PSV Eindhoven, despite reaching the round of 16 last term, are not expected to make the play-offs this season, though they are predicted to finish above Dutch rivals Ajax.
Olympiacos is tipped to agonisingly miss out on the knockouts with a 25th-place finish, while Eintracht Frankfurt, Galatasaray, and Roberto De Zerbi’s Marseille are also predicted for early exits from the competition.
The predicted standings for positions 25 to 36 are:
| Position | Club | Predicted Points |
|---|---|---|
| 25. | Olympiacos | 9.63 |
| 26. | PSV Eindhoven | 9.42 |
| 27. | Galatasaray | 9.37 |
| 28. | Eintracht Frankfurt | 9.32 |
| 29. | Copenhagen | 9.30 |
| 30. | Pafos | 8.74 |
| 31. | Marseille | 8.37 |
| 32. | Ajax | 8.18 |
| 33. | Slavia Prague | 7.57 |
| 34. | Bodø/Glimt | 7.48 |
| 35. | Qarabağ | 5.58 |
| 36. | Kairat | 3.54 |
As the 2025–26 Champions League league phase draws near, these predictions from the Opta supercomputer provide a fascinating glimpse into what could unfold. While statistics offer valuable insights, the beauty of football lies in its unpredictability, ensuring a season filled with drama, upsets, and unforgettable moments. Fans can read the latest Champions League news, previews, and player ratings to stay updated as the action unfolds.
